Monday, October 12, 2026English edition
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The Geopolitician

Country risk, from the local press

Bulgaria country watch

Signals only — no written briefing yet. Every number links to the articles it counts.

Vigilance

No active vigilance flag · rules: Heightened vigilance for staff and travel · Pressure surge · Media polarisation spike

Flare-up watch

Flare-up watch: Watch (1.3) — driven by Safety & health and Internal tension

  • Internal tension +2.0
  • Safety & health +2.3
  • Attention −0.7

· the articles counted

Signals consistent with rising crisis risk. A composite of press signals, not a forecast.

Composite of the day's z-scores against the country's own history — Internal tension 0.25, Safety & health 0.20, agenda divergence 0.20, framing gap 0.15, attention 0.20; a missing component drops out and the others are renormalised. Calm below 0.5 · Watch to 1.5 · High above. Needs 14 days of history on two components. Method →

Risk pressure, last 30 days

Risk categoryLevelArticles, 30 daysBaselineChange vs previous 30 days (articles)Last signal
Regulatory riskno baseline yet119—▲ +119Най-мащабното разширяване на санкциите на ЕС срещу Русия Vesti.bg
Operational riskno baseline yet111—▲ +111САЩ, България и още 27 държави се заканиха на Иран Sega
Stability riskno baseline yet86—▲ +86Арести след Ливърпул – Сити, един полицай е ранен сериозно gong.bg
Safety & health riskno baseline yet79—▲ +79Показаха ексклузивни кадри от борда на атакувания в Черно море кораб (ВИДЕО) Darik News
Corporate riskno baseline yet48—▲ +48FT: Кремъл готви екзекуции на шефове на оръжейни фирми Sega
Financial riskno baseline yet166—▲ +166Радар за икономика: Най-важните новини на 12 октомври 2026 г. Actualno
Trade riskno baseline yet65—▲ +65ЕС отваря нови преговорни клъстери с Украйна и Молдова Dnes.bg
Political riskno baseline yet370—▲ +370Актуализират данъчните оценки на имотите през 2027 г., промените ще са на три етапа Dnes.bg

Pressure index from 30 days of history · 21 so far

Level = articles that passed the risk gate in the last 30 days, against the country's own baseline (mean of the previous three 30-day windows). Quiet 0 · Low up to the baseline · Elevated up to twice the baseline · High above. Counts, not severities: a press signal, not a rating. Every row links to the articles counted. Method →

Bulgaria in the world's press

Today 24 articles · ×0.4 vs 30-day average · led by Estonia, Lebanon, Russia, Sweden, Cyprus press

Articles mentioning the country across the outlets we read, vs the 30-day average. Method →

Media polarisation

Shown from 14 days of data · 0 collected so far

Media we read

15 outlets read every day

  • Actualno independent
  • BNR state
  • Darik News independent
  • Dnes Dir.bg independent
  • Dnes.bg independent
  • Dnevnik independent
  • Fakti independent
  • Focus independent
  • gong.bg independent
  • iNews independent
  • Mediapool independent
  • News.bg independent
  • Sega independent
  • Standard Information Agency
  • Vesti.bg independent

How we rate outlets →

Today's signals

· 58 articles

Every article counted this day →

All countries →