Sudan country watch
Signals only — no written briefing yet. Every number links to the articles it counts.
Vigilance
No active vigilance flag · rules: Heightened vigilance for staff and travel · Pressure surge · Media polarisation spike
Flare-up watch
Flare-up watch: Watch (0.8) — driven by Internal tension
- Internal tension +2.0
- Safety & health +0.5
- Agenda divergence +0.0
- Attention +0.3
Signals consistent with rising crisis risk. A composite of press signals, not a forecast.
Composite of the day's z-scores against the country's own history — Internal tension 0.25, Safety & health 0.20, agenda divergence 0.20, framing gap 0.15, attention 0.20; a missing component drops out and the others are renormalised. Calm below 0.5 · Watch to 1.5 · High above. Needs 14 days of history on two components. Method →
Risk pressure, last 30 days
| Risk category | Level | Articles, 30 days | Baseline | Change vs previous 30 days (articles) | Last signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory risk | no baseline yet | 2 | — | ▲ +2 | إعفاء الدول العربية من رفع جمارك الدجاج والمنتجات الزراعية Alnilin |
| Operational risk | no baseline yet | 7 | — | ▲ +7 | Rising food prices and poor rains fuel fears of hunger crisis in Darfur Radio Dabanga |
| Stability risk | no baseline yet | 17 | — | ▲ +17 | Sudanese anti-war forces present peace roadmap to regional and international mediators Radio Dabanga |
| Safety & health risk | no baseline yet | 5 | — | ▲ +5 | WHO warns ‘critical’ health needs in Darfur far exceed available resources Radio Dabanga |
| Corporate risk | Quiet | 0 | — | = | — |
| Financial risk | no baseline yet | 8 | — | ▲ +8 | Counterfeiting compels Central Bank of Sudan to withdraw old SDG500 bills Radio Dabanga |
| Trade risk | no baseline yet | 7 | — | ▲ +7 | الجزائر والنيجر… من عبور الصحراء إلى عبور البيانات Alnilin |
| Political risk | no baseline yet | 1 | — | ▲ +1 | US-Egypt-Sudan meeting in New York discusses peace efforts Radio Dabanga |
Pressure index from 30 days of history · 15 so far
Level = articles that passed the risk gate in the last 30 days, against the country's own baseline (mean of the previous three 30-day windows). Quiet 0 · Low up to the baseline · Elevated up to twice the baseline · High above. Counts, not severities: a press signal, not a rating. Every row links to the articles counted. Method →
Sudan in the world's press
Today 188 articles · ×0.8 vs 30-day average · led by Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Burkina Faso, Russia press
Articles mentioning the country across the outlets we read, vs the 30-day average. Method →
Media polarisation
Normal · 100% of the day's topics covered by one side only
· independent 13 · opposition 16 articles · 29 topics, 0 shared
Share of the day's topics covered by only one side (power vs opposition outlets), from the outlets we read. Media polarisation, not public opinion. Method →
Media we read
16 outlets read every day
- Akhir Lahza independent
- Al-ahram independent
- Al-Intibaha independent
- Alhadag independent
- Alnilin independent
- Alsadda independent
- Alsahafa independent
- Alsudani independent
- Ashorooq state
- Goan independent
- Hiltna independent
- Radio Dabanga opposition
- Sudan Radio state
- Sudan Tribune independent
- Sudanese Online independent
- SudanJem.com independent
Today's signals
Internal tension
- Sudanese anti-war forces present peace roadmap to regional and international mediators ↗ Radio Dabangaopposition