Cuba country watch
Signals only — no written briefing yet. Every number links to the articles it counts.
Vigilance
No active vigilance flag · rules: Heightened vigilance for staff and travel · Pressure surge · Media polarisation spike
Flare-up watch
Flare-up watch: Watch (0.7) — driven by Safety & health and Internal tension
- Internal tension +1.3
- Safety & health +1.3
- Agenda divergence +0.1
- Attention +0.1
Signals consistent with rising crisis risk. A composite of press signals, not a forecast.
Composite of the day's z-scores against the country's own history — Internal tension 0.25, Safety & health 0.20, agenda divergence 0.20, framing gap 0.15, attention 0.20; a missing component drops out and the others are renormalised. Calm below 0.5 · Watch to 1.5 · High above. Needs 14 days of history on two components. Method →
Risk pressure, last 30 days
Pressure index from 30 days of history · 21 so far
Level = articles that passed the risk gate in the last 30 days, against the country's own baseline (mean of the previous three 30-day windows). Quiet 0 · Low up to the baseline · Elevated up to twice the baseline · High above. Counts, not severities: a press signal, not a rating. Every row links to the articles counted. Method →
Cuba in the world's press
Today 179 articles · ×0.8 vs 30-day average · led by Cuba, Rwanda, Jamaica, Venezuela, Barbados press
Articles mentioning the country across the outlets we read, vs the 30-day average. Method →
Media polarisation
Normal · 100% of the day's topics covered by one side only
· opposition 30 · power 13 articles · 56 topics, 0 shared
Share of the day's topics covered by only one side (power vs opposition outlets), from the outlets we read. Media polarisation, not public opinion. Method →
Media we read
8 outlets read every day
- Cuba Debate state
- Cuba Encuentro opposition
- CubaSi.cu state
- Diario de Cuba opposition
- Diario Granma
- Juventud Rebelde state
- Marti opposition
- Prensa latina independent
Today's signals
Regulation
Disruption
- Air China encadena cancelaciones en la ruta Madrid-La Habana y deja a cubanos varados ↗ Diario de Cubaopposition
- Un incendio en una entidad de AZCUBA en Manzanillo deja un herido grave y otro en estado crítico ↗ Diario de Cubaopposition